Projecting New Hampshire Primary Care Demand

Dates: 2013

State: New Hampshire

Client(s): University of New Hampshire

Services: Health Care & Public Health Planning, Applied Research & Evaluation, Health Systems Transformation

Technical Expertise: Health Disparities, Population Health, Primary Care, State and Local Public Health


Map NH Health, an effort undertaken by the Citizen’s Health Initiative and the University of New Hampshire, aims to project the future of the state's health and health care delivery system, and to engage stakeholders, including policy makers, consumers, and business/community leaders, in proactively addressing the challenges identified. Primary care access and workforce is a key area of interest for this process. As part of this effort, JSI developed primary care demand estimates through 2030 at the town and higher geographic levels.

Using methods developed by JSI for federal primary care analysis projects, JSI first developed a matrix of primary care utilization by age and gender reflecting the health and utilization patterns of NH residents. The method combines an analysis of a 'barrier free' sample of the AHRQ Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), combined with an analysis of the New Hampshire Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS) to adjust for health status in the state overall. The results were then applied to population projections through 2030, developed by the University of Wisconsin.

The data will reflect raw and ‘barrier free’ utilization patterns, with the latter being the preferred method as it avoids the assumption that current access barriers are perpetuated in the estimates of demand. It will permit changes in demand to be estimated separately based on population growth as compared to changing demographics.