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What we can learn from other health areas to improve vaccine forecasts for zero-dose children

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Demand forecasting is the process of estimating the needed quantities of products based on a number of inputs, including demand for the product, supplier information, and other external factors such as weather patterns or other disruptive events, in order to predict the future product need. There is no single approach to forecasting for health products; various methods have been adopted by different health programs to obtain a more accurate forecast. For immunization programs, strategic national-level forecasting is done on an annual basis to estimate the needed quantity of vaccines and related supplies to be procured for the following year. Estimating the needs of vaccines and syringes at the tactical and operational sub-national level for re-supply efforts, including the service delivery point, is done regularly throughout the year, based on the distribution cycle and accounting for stock on hand.

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